Simulation: Early warning of armed conflict

When following the news, it seems like armed conflict and violence are an inevitable part of the contemporary world. At the same time the information that is available about these conflicts draws a confusing picture; on the one hand, many say that they are too complex to come to a simple solution, while at the same time news coverage brings it down to black-and-white assessments. The haste with which stories need to be covered often make that the stories of on-the-ground people are overshadowed. There is simply no time, and often no interest, to listen to communities that might be facing, dealing with or recovering from conflicts.

Yet this lack of eye for the smaller stories make that a lot of on the ground knowledge is lost. Aside from the human interest point of view, these on the ground opinions and the small scale stories are crucial for early warning, for conflict prevention, conflict resolution and for maintaining calm in post-conflict situations. It is the people from within these communities that understand the local context, opinions, hopes and worries best. However, policymakers do not usually hear these local voices, and instead depend on external information and analysis.

In 2010, the European Centre for Conflict Prevention (ECCP), as global secretariat of the Global Partnership for the Prevention of Armed Conflict (GPPAC) will launch the Peace Portal, an on-line platform for people all over the world that work on conflict prevention and peacebuilding. One of the objectives of the Portal will be to give the opportunity to on-the-ground civil society organisations to share their stories, opinions, solutions and other inside information.

During this highly interactive workshop you will play-out a scenario in which information feeds on a new and emerging conflict come up through the Peace Portal. How do you respond to warnings of violence? How do you prevent the escalation of violence? What would you do, if you were the UN, the international media, a government, a student of International Relations or a civil society organisation? And find out what the importance is of information.

This workshop is offered by the European Centre for Conflict Prevention (ECCP).

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